Increasing the global average temperature Is too close of Exceed the mark of 1.5 ° C. This was the limit established by Paris agreementsigned by dozens of countries for ten years. This is what a new study published in the magazine indicates Earth System Science data (ESSD).
Research works with a concept called “Carbon budget“. That is, the limit greenhouse gases that can be emitted to maintain the likelihood of 50% not to pass the brand of 1.5 ° C of heating in relation to the pre -industrial levels.
World stage before climate change
Leaving the theory and going to the numbers, we have the following scenario:
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations, dear, to 2021that the remaining carbon budget for the target was 500 billion tonnes of CO₂. The new study indicates that this number fell 130 billion tons in 2024;
- In the evaluation of Joeri Rogelj, professor of science and climatic policies at the Imperial College London (England) and co -author of the research performed by more than 60 international scientistsThe goal is seen more and more unattainable;
- The team concluded that both the level and the rhythm of global warming in 2024 were unpublished.
The climatologist warns of the future climate of the planet
It Digital appearance talked to the climatologist Carlos NobreComplete professor of the Chair of Climate and Sustainability of the University of São Paulo (USP) and co -chair of the Scientific Group for the Amazon. Emphasized that The time to act ends.
“Future risk is what science now indicates. The World Meteorological Organization (OMM) has also launched a very important report, saying that the probability we will permanently reach 1.5 ° C by 2030 very high If we Continue with the emissions of greenhouse gases, “he explained.
“(The study) indicates that the maximum we can emit below 1.5 ° C would be in order of 130 billion tons of greenhouse gas (today) More than 50 billion per year. Then, In three years we would pass this limit. ,
“As I said, science tries to explain a lot as we enlarge the temperature, of 0.35 ° C, from 2022 to 2024. El Niño disappeared in April but The temperature is still very hot, hit the record In most oceans and therefore this is a gigantic risk“He emphasized nobleman.
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The article evaluated ten Indicators of climate change and were released during the United Nations Climate Negotiation Meeting in Bonn (Germany).
Researchers estimate that the average global temperature of the decade ending in 2024 was 1.24 ° C above Pre-industrial-Mainly levels because of register and of Fossil fuel cream. To get an idea, the overall warming rate of 2012 to 2024 was the double registered in the decades of 1970 and 1980.
This is a scenario that, if not reversed, will take a irreparable loss In different biomes, according to Carlos Nobre. “But if we reach 1.5 ° C until 2030 and continue with emissions, even slowly reducing emissions to 2050us, We would certainly pass 2 ° C and We can reach up to 2.5 degrees by 2050. This is an echocide, a suicide for the planet“He warned.
“The Amazon will disappear,” alert noble
In order, the climatologist listed the great problems that the planet (and us) can face if the situation is not reversed:
The frozen soil of Siberia, northern Canada, northern Alaska and Permafrost, up to 2100, of 2 ° C, will play more than 200 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas, especially methane, which much more absorbs radiation than carbon dioxide.
We will lose the Amazon. We may lose up to 70% of the Amazon, self -control in an open and very degraded open ocean system, a super degraded savannah. We will play more than 250 billion tons of carbon dioxide (in the atmosphere) until 2100.
We will accelerate the melting of the Greenland ice mantle and the sea level will increase much faster than the part of Antarctica. We will extinguish virtually up to 2100. We can lose more than 99% of coral reef species, where it maintains 25% of biodiversity. And we will also perfect a lot of the ocean, the Arctic Ice Sea and near Antarctica.
These are gigantic risks that we live. COP 30 must be the most important of the 30 police officers. We need to combat all the climate emergency, otherwise the planet goes to Ecocide.
Carlos Nobre, full professor of the President and Sustainability of the University of São Paulo (USP) and co -chair of the Amazon Scientific Group, in an interview with Digital appearance
